As the global shipping industry braces for a transformative year, 2025 marks the beginning of new alliances and strategic shifts that promise to reshape the maritime sector. With the dissolution of familiar partnerships and the rise of new cooperative agreements, carriers are rethinking how they operate, compete, and deliver value. Amid these changes, shippers and logistics professionals must adapt quickly to manage their supply chains effectively in this evolving environment.
As shipping alliances take a new shape, questions arise about port access, transit times, and service reliability. Will these changes ease congestion at key hubs like Singapore? How will overcapacity impact freight rates as carriers take delivery of record fleet expansions? For shippers, the path forward involves not only understanding the dynamics of these alliances but also strategically aligning their operations to stay competitive in an unpredictable market.
The key players and new alliances in 2025Â Â
As we head into 2025, the reshuffling of alliances in the shipping industry introduces new dynamics across global trade lanes.
The Gemini Cooperation represents a shift from the previous 2M and THE Alliances, with Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd restructuring their fleets and operations to improve efficiency. The network will include 290 vessels and provide around 26 mainline services, complemented by dedicated shuttle connections to key hubs like Singapore, Tanjung Pelepas, and Cartagena.
The OCEAN Alliance, consisting of COSCO, CMA CGM, and Evergreen, remains the most extensive alliance by capacity. It is poised to continue operations until at least 2032, solidifying its presence across Asia-Europe and Transpacific routes.
Premier Alliance (rebranded from THE Alliance) will feature ONE, HMM, and Yang Ming. While it is the smallest alliance, its members will explore niche routes and capacity strategies to stay competitive in 2025.
MSC, the largest container carrier globally, is breaking away from alliance structures to operate independently. Its standalone strategy, with selective slot-sharing agreements, highlights a focus on flexibility and direct customer engagement without the complexities of alliance coordination.
What these changes mean for global trade routes
The Gemini Cooperation promises to deliver higher reliability across critical East-West trades, including the Transatlantic, Asia-Europe, and Middle East routes. With its fleet of 290 vessels and 26 mainline services, the partnership aims to set a new benchmark with 90% schedule reliability—well above the industry average of 53%. To achieve this, Gemini will employ a hub-and-spoke model using owned and controlled hubs like Tanjung Pelepas and Cartagena, designed to minimise disruptions by isolating potential delays at specific nodes.
Gemini’s routing strategy also reflects adaptability to geopolitical disruptions. With conflicts in the Red Sea unresolved, the alliance has planned contingency routes around the Cape of Good Hope, ensuring uninterrupted service even under volatile conditions. This flexibility makes it easier for customers to avoid congested transhipment hubs, such as Singapore, while still benefiting from fast connections along high-demand corridors.
The OCEAN Alliance remains the largest by capacity, accounting for 28.9% of global container capacity. Its continued dominance on Asia-Europe and Transpacific routes is expected to create stable, high-frequency services. In addition, the alliance’s extension through 2032 reflects a long-term strategy to consolidate capacity and avoid over-supply risks, especially as new ships are delivered throughout 2025.
This alliance will be critical in meeting rising demand on the Asia-Middle East and Asia-US routes, where trade volumes have surged due to shifting sourcing strategies and US tariffs on Chinese goods. By consolidating capacity and coordinating schedules, the OCEAN Alliance aims to maintain its competitive edge in key corridors, potentially influencing freight rates for shippers operating on these routes.
MSC’s decision to operate independently in 2025 marks a bold shift from traditional alliance models. The carrier, already the world’s largest, seeks to leverage select slot-sharing agreements to maintain flexibility while avoiding the constraints of formal partnerships. Its increased focus on direct connections to strategic ports like Antwerp reflects an aggressive strategy to capture market share on routes where precision and frequency are essential.
This independence allows MSC to react more swiftly to market changes, but it also increases its exposure to operational risks. However, MSC’s emphasis on spot markets—as opposed to Maersk’s focus on long-term contracts—positions it well to benefit from short-term demand surges across volatile routes.
Capacity implications for shippers Â
With the introduction of new alliances and independent strategies, the global shipping industry will face significant shifts in capacity management in 2025. These changes—driven by record fleet growth and adjustments in carrier strategies—will impact freight procurement, fleet utilisation, and market rates.
2025 will witness substantial fleet expansion, with MSC leading the charge by adding 46 new vessels, contributing 582,000 TEU of new capacity to the market. Meanwhile, the OCEAN Alliance will receive the highest total capacity among alliances, with COSCO, CMA CGM, and Evergreen taking delivery of 591,000 TEU across their fleets. This wave of new vessels will increase pressure on carriers to manage capacity efficiently to avoid a glut that could drive down freight rates.
The new alliances are also reshaping how capacity is allocated across crucial trade routes. For example, the Gemini Cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd will focus on streamlining services through agile shuttle loops, ensuring that capacity is deployed more flexibly across corridors like Asia-Mediterranean and Asia-US East Coast routes.
Despite efforts to align capacity with demand, overcapacity remains a critical risk. TEU-mile demand—a key metric that factors in both the volume and distance of container movements—could fluctuate if geopolitical disruptions persist. As disruptions in the Red Sea redirect vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, longer shipping distances will temporarily absorb excess capacity. However, if these disruptions ease, the release of vessels back into standard trade lanes could result in an oversupply of capacity, further pushing down freight rates.
Carriers will need to employ strategic measures like capacity management and vessel layups to prevent market imbalances. Additionally, demolition rates—the scrapping of older vessels—will become essential to controlling capacity. However, as demand for tonnage remains high, the average age of ships being scrapped has increased to 29.2 years, reflecting the carriers’ reluctance to retire vessels despite declining efficiency.
The charter market—where carriers lease vessels from non-operating owners—will also play a pivotal role in capacity management. ZIM and Yang Ming, for example, rely heavily on chartered capacity, with ZIM leading at 91.3%. However, with limited idle vessels available in the market, securing additional capacity could become more challenging, particularly as freight forwarders and alliances adjust their networks.
The ongoing integration of DB Schenker into DSV adds another layer of complexity, as this acquisition could reshape the dynamics of the freight-forwarding market, influencing how capacity is procured and deployed in 2025.
Strategic implications for freight procurement Â
As new vessels flood the market and alliances adjust their networks, freight rates are expected to fluctuate throughout 2025. Shippers who previously relied heavily on long-term contracts will need to incorporate hybrid procurement models, balancing long-term commitments with exposure to the spot market. This approach offers flexibility to take advantage of lower spot rates during periods of overcapacity while maintaining stability through long-term contracts in volatile times.
The Gemini Cooperation emphasises agility, offering a hub-and-spoke model that ensures service reliability above 90% while reducing transit time variability. This reliability allows shippers to negotiate stable long-term contracts with confidence, knowing that delays will be minimised even amid ongoing disruptions.
The abundance of shipping data now available empowers shippers to benchmark carriers on multiple metrics, including CO2 emissions, schedule reliability, capacity availability, and transit times. This shift allows companies to select carriers not only on price but also on service quality and environmental impact, aligning procurement decisions with sustainability goals.
Additionally, as carriers expand fleets with vessels capable of using alternative fuels like LNG and methanol, shippers focused on green logistics will have more options to choose from. These sustainability considerations will increasingly influence procurement decisions, with carriers that perform well on emissions metrics gaining a competitive edge in contract negotiations.
With the restructuring of alliances, shippers must stay agile in their procurement processes, ensuring their supply chains remain resilient to disruptions. The end of the 2M and THE Alliances and the launch of new partnerships will alter port calls and service offerings on key trade lanes. As MSC transitions to independent operations, companies will need to reassess their carrier partnerships, especially if relying on niche routes where MSC may dominate.
As mentioned, shippers should also monitor the impact of freight-forwarding mergers—such as DSV’s acquisition of DB Schenker—which could affect how capacity is distributed and priced. Freight forwarders operating independently from major carrier alliances may offer unique advantages for shippers seeking more flexibility.
Geopolitical tensions, including potential conflicts in the Red Sea and Taiwan Strait, will continue to threaten supply chains in 2025. Shippers must adopt just-in-case strategies to mitigate risks, building redundancy into their procurement processes by securing multiple carrier options across different alliances.
Economic volatility—such as the potential for new US tariffs on Chinese goods—will also impact shipping demand and freight rates. Shippers can protect themselves by diversifying sourcing strategies, such as leveraging China-Mexico trade corridors, which have seen rapid growth due to geopolitical shifts.
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As the shipping industry undergoes structural changes in 2025, shippers must rethink their procurement strategies to remain competitive. The key to success lies in balancing cost efficiency with service reliability, leveraging data insights, and aligning procurement decisions with sustainability goals. By adopting hybrid procurement models and staying agile in the face of geopolitical uncertainty, companies can maintain resilient and effective supply chains, ready to thrive in the maritime landscape of 2025.
