Bullish long-term gains for airfreight, says FAA

US agency cites reasons for 4.2% growth throughout the 2009-2025 forecast period.
A cargo jet belonging to US giant United Airlines.
A cargo jet belonging to US giant United Airlines.


The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has released its long-term forecast for the American and international air transport market, which predicts that the air cargo sector will see a bullish 4.1% growth in 2010 after a 7.6% loss this year.

Long-term growth forecasts, which are based on models that link cargo activity to GDP, indicate that total revenue tonne miles (RTMs) will grow by an average annual rate of 4.2% over the entire 2009-2025 period.
The FAA also predicts that the US’ large cargo jet fleet will increase by just six aircraft over the next two years, before experiencing stronger growth until 2025. The US’s narrow-bodied freighter fleet is expected to grow by 11 aircraft a year during the forecast period, as older 737s and 757s are converted into cargo service.

The agency stated that these predictions were based several assumptions, including the fact that air cargo security restrictions will remain in place, that most of the shift from air to ground transportation has occurred and that long-term cargo activity will remain tied to economic growth.

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